A Sinking Ship

As the July 31 trade deadline looms [only five more sleeps!], the usual questions come up about the Blue Jays. I guess these questions resurface every year because the answers are not always clear. For the last 17 years, they have been a middling team that always seems situated exactly at the halfway point between the pennant race and absolute basement. Year after year, they show flashes of being able to put together a strong playoff push but match it with an equally bad slump. And so, these questions remain:

Are the Blue Jays buyers or sellers at this year’s trade deadline?

If you had asked me at the beginning of the season, I would have answered unequivocally that this team would be selling at the trade deadline. 2010 was meant as a “bridge” year to the future [whatever that means]; a year to develop young players at the major league level, groom minor league prospects for the coming seasons, and see off Cito Gaston to the woodshed.

At this point in the season, my position hasn’t changed much. As I write this, the Blue Jays are 13 games behind the AL East leading Yankees and 10 games out of the AL wild card race. The only thing they have to gain by going for it this year is that they would generate a smattering of fan interest toward the end of the year, which would mean a small spike in attendance. Not really worth it. This team needs to continue loading up for the next few seasons. In this case, as sellers, the players worth selling via trade are major league level players who can help a team trying to make/load for the playoffs.

Can’t escape trade rumours

• Scott Downs. Any team could use Scott Downs in their bullpen. He has been one of the most consistent and reliable relief arms in the majors over the past few seasons. He isn’t just a lefty specialist either, he could be used against righthanded batters as well.
• Lyle Overbay. His name has come up a lot but I think his being traded is more wishful thinking on the part of the Blue Jays [and fans]. Since his wrist injury two years ago his hitting numbers are down and he is 33 years old, so he has that working against him. However, we can see that he has been hitting an impressive .301/.372/.494 for the past two months [I know, arbitrary endpoints], which might be enough to fool some GM into believing he can contribute. On a contending team, he would be useful as a lefty pinch-hitter or a defensive replacement for a completely ham-handed 1b. Whether that market exists could dictate whether he gets traded.

Has trade value

In the offseason, Alex Anthopoulos made a few short-term free agent signings. These short-term acquisitions are valuable because they buy some time for prospects to develop [e.g., signing catchers John Buck and José Molina to one-year contracts while J.P. Arencibia spends the year at AAA], or because they can be of value when it comes to the trade or free agency market. Such players could bring back prospects via trade, or the club could let their contracts expire and get draft picks as compensation when they sign with another team. Either way, the club benefits.

• José Bautista. His trade value could not get any higher. Supposedly teams have inquired on Bautista [including the Braves, during the González-Escobar trade discussions]; I’m sure they like his ability to play multiple positions and all of those home runs he’s been hitting this season. It doesn’t seem likely that the Jays will give him up in a trade, considering that 3b might be a vacant position next season and he would still be under team control for a couple more years.
• John Buck. Getting named to the AL All-Star team this year probably boosted his trade value a little. A team needing a catcher with pop in his bat could use Buck. I’d be surprised if the Red Sox haven’t at least inquired.
• Jason Frasor and Kevin Gregg. For the purposes of this discussion, they’re pretty much the same player. Righthanded reliever with closer experience, had rough patches this season, could be an effective setup man for a team in contention. It probably didn’t help that former Jays J.P. Ricciardi went on the radio and trashed both of them, assuming anyone was paying attention. Both project to be Type B free agents, meaning that they stay for the rest of 2010 and then leave via free agency, the Jays receive a sandwich pick. They would have to get something better than that in a trade, which to me doesn’t seem likely.
• John McDonald. I’m pretty sure that John McDonald’s name has come up in trade rumours but he does represent some trade value, although not enough to bring back any major prospects. Any team preparing for a playoff run could use a glove like McDonald’s to provide defensive reinforcement late in a game.

Not going anywhere

• Part of the long-term future: Adam Lind, Shaun Marcum, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero, Travis Snider.
• Recently acquired: Yunel Escobar.
• Too much money remaining on contract: Vernon Wells.

No trade value

• Long-term injuries: Dirk Hayhurst, Dustin McGowan, Scott Richmond.
• Long-term shortage of skill: Jarret Hoffpauir, Mike McCoy, José Molina, David Purcey, Robert “Bobby” Ray, DeWayne Wise.
• Some skill, but most teams already have guys like this: Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson, Edwin Encarnación, Casey Janssen, Rommie Lewis, Jesse Litsch, Brad Mills, Marc Rzepczynski, Brian Tallet.